Global Climate Change

1. Global Climate Change And Public Policy

2. Key Policy Documents • United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change • Kyoto Protocol

3. Some Background Stuff • Environmental problems & public policy responses take place at the juncture of the natural world and human behavior, which can be frustrating • But, this is the hand which we have been dealt, so…

4. Human Realities • Market failure (externalities) • Time frames • Our life span • Election cycle • Jurisdictional (political) boundaries • International • National

5. Human Realities, cont. • Different “actors,” different positions • Getting agreement on anything often requires bargaining, compromise

6. International Environmental Policy Formation Takes Place • In the context of national sovereignty • Through negotiations leading to treaties among sovereign states • In an effort to form “regimes” (sets of institutions, agreed-upon behaviors, etc. aimed at addressing a problem or issue • Conventions • Protocols

7. National Sovereignty • Nation states may largely do as they wish within their own boundaries • Cooperation on boundary-spanning problems is necessary, but is often difficult to achieve • Nations may agree to cooperate with others, but • There is no authoritative international legislative body • There is no authoritative international executive • So, as a general rule, nation states may not be compelled to do that which they do not wish to do, or not do that which they do wish to do

8. Conventions • What? • Multiparty treaties • Aimed at establishing cooperation in responding to a specific issue or set of issues • May be joined by additional nations after having been adopted

9. Some Important Terms • Signatories - The nations which have signed the treaty • Parties - The nations which have signed & ratified the agreement (i.e. are full participants in the agreement) • Secretariat ‑‑ The administrative body which is responsible for implementing the agreement (may be UN body, e.g. UNEP, or free standing, e.g. Climate Change)

10. Some Important Terms, cont. • Framework conventions • Establish basic procedures, or “rules of the game” for dealing with a problem • May include a little substance (but not much) • Frequently provide for a regular Conference of Parties (COP) • Meetings of nations party to the treaty (&, often, other interested parties) to discuss implementation, progress, enforcement, modifications, etc.

11. Some Important Terms, cont. • Protocols: Follow up agreements which deal with substance • e.g. Vienna Convention on Ozone (1985) & Montreal Protocol (1987 & 1990) • Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) & Kyoto Protocol (1997) • NGOs & IGOs

12. NGOs (Non-governmental Organizations ) • Private interest groups (e.g. Greenpeace) • Often lobby/pressure national governments & international meetings • Have been very active in climate change • Have a (sort of) formal role in Kyoto

13. IGOs or INGOs (International Governmental Organizations ) • International bureaucracies, often affiliated with the United Nations • Can play an important role • Agenda-setting • Implementation • Funds handling

14. A Few Important IGOs • United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) • United Nations Development Program (UNDP) • Global Environment Facility (GEF) • A funding entity designed do aid developing nations afford the costs of environmental protection • Originally got its funding from World Bank & UNEP

15. Negotiating Environmental Treaties • Environmental treaties are negotiated on an ad hoc basis • Participants are self-selected • One nation, one vote • Nation states negotiate & vote • NGOs do not - but they can lobby & (depending on circumstances) participate in discussions

16. Negotiating Environmental Treaties, cont. • North – South (developing nations v. developed nations) disputes are common, and have influenced the climate change debate • Treaties with global implications may be negotiated by a minority of nations • Treaty negotiations may not include key nations • Treaties which are in force may not include key nations

17. Nation States & Environmental Treaties • Their international positions arise from • Domestic political factors • National (self?) interest • Perceived costs, risks (& benefits) of an environmental regime • International politics • Subnational actors (states, cities) • Existing commitments (treaties, etc.) • Scientific evidence

18. Nation States & Environmental Treaties, cont. • They play various roles in making international environmental policy • Lead state • Supporting State • Swing state • Veto state

19. The U.S. & International Climate Change Policy • We participated in the negotiations leading up to the Framework Convention on Climate Change & the Kyoto Protocol • We signed both treaties • We have ratified the Framework Convention, but not the Kyoto Protocol (& President Bush has indicated that he will not push to do so)

20. U.S. Treaty Processes • Ratification • If he wishes to try for ratification, the president must submit the treaty to the Senate for ratification approval • The Foreign Affairs committee (&, possibly, other committees) review it, &, if they wish to do so, send it to the full Senate for vote • A two-thirds majority is necessary for ratification • Clinton, Bush & Kyoto

21. U.S. Treaty Processes, cont. • Implementing legislation • Many treaties are not complete in & of themselves. The Congress must pass further (implementing) legislation before we really begin to perform our treaty obligations (e.g. the Montreal Protocol & the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments) • Goes through ordinary legislative procedures • Simple majorities (50% plus one) in both houses • Committees • Presidential approval

22. U.S. Treaty Processes, cont. • After implementing legislation has been adopted it may be subjected to court challenge • It must be implemented by the bureaucracy • Assignment to a specific agency • Funding, etc. • Rule-making procedures are complex, so are enforcement actions

23. Things To Remember About U.S. Policy Making Processes • There are a lot of opportunities to kill proposed policies (e.g. a treaty ratification), proponents must win in all venues, opponents need only win in one • Even winning in the Congress & White House does not guarantee success

24. Factors Influencing U.S. Climate Change Policy • American preference for incremental approaches to policy making • Concerns re. • China, India (& other developing nations) • Impact on our economy • Partisanship • Political “Seasons” • Other political agenda items • Interest groups • And many other factors

25. Climate Change Convention • Negotiated prior to 1992 “Earth Summit,” but opened for signing at that conference • 40 “Annex 1” nations (largely industrialized) agreed to take the lead role in cutting projected 2000 emissions back to 1990 levels. • No deadlines • No post-2000 targets

26. Climate Change Convention, cont. • Entered into force in 1994 when the necessary 50 nations had ratified • Weak on specifics due to • U.S. opposition • Developing nations opposition to having emissions controls applied to themselves • Support for a stronger treaty appeared early (at first COP)

27. Kyoto Protocol Provisions • Annex 1 (industrialized) nations • Agreed to reduce their overall greenhouse gas emissions by at least 5.2% below 1990 levels between 2008 – 2012 • Some “differentiation” on target reductions among those nations (see Table 2) • Developing nations • No targeted reductions • No “opt-in” clause whereby developing nations could voluntarily adopt emissions reduction targets

28. Kyoto Provisions, cont. • “Flexibility mechanisms” (for cost control) • Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) • Developed nations may finance projects that reduce 3rd world emissions, thereby gaining credits applicable to their own mandatory limits • E.g “Carbon sinks” • Joint Implementation • Similar to CDM, but involves western, market-oriented nations and former Soviet bloc nations (economies in transition)

29. Kyoto Provisions, cont. • Emissions trading • Annex 1 nations which have achieved their commitments can sell excess emissions credits to other Annex 1 nations which are having difficulties in meeting their credits • A U.S. initiative, based on similar provisions in 1990 Clean Air Act amendments

30. Bringing Kyoto Into Force • Needed to be ratified by 55 nations, representing 55% of 1990 CO2 emissions • U.S. is biggest emitter, our refusal to ratify made it difficult to assemble the required number of “right” ratifications, and • Encouraged some nations to seek special deals in return for their ratification (e.g. Russia & Ukraine need not reduce below their 1990 levels)

31. Some Issues With Kyoto • Are the regime’s goals & mechanisms sufficient to accomplish goals? In a meaningful time frame? • Will emissions trading be effective at the international level? • Weak enforcement mechanisms • Special treatment for Russia (not required to reduce below 1990 levels, lots of unused Soviet-era industrial capacity, etc.)

32. Some Issues, cont. • Compliance • Reporting, etc. is weak, may be difficult to tell when a nation is not complying • What to do if a nation is not complying? • Developing nations • Some are not big contributors to the problem, but others are • Makes it more difficult to persuade national leaders to agree to the treaty

33. Some Issues, cont. • Can the regime be effective without U.S. (& Australia) ratification

34. The U.S. – Current Policy • Based on • Some questioning of the existence of climate change • Belief that human activity doesn’t cause it • Belief that it will not be disruptive, etc. • Kyoto will not go to the Senate • Voluntary controls

35. Kyoto & The U.S. • Could Still Be Ratified • Things can change rapidly (e.g. acid rain & 1990 CAAA) • Elections • “Agenda setting”

36. Is Kyoto Ratification Necessary? • State-level action is always possible • California • Federal legislation, even in the absence of ratification, could accomplish worthwhile objectives • Incremental change can accomplish a lot • Politics is different, may be an easier “sell” • E.g.’s: carbon taxes, subsidies for clean technologies initiatives