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# Dynamic Bayesian Network

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1. Dynamic Bayesian Network Fuzzy SystemsLifelog management

2. Outline • Introduction • Definition • Representation • Inference • Learning • Comparison • Summary

3. C A B A B D Brief Review of Bayesian Networks • Graphical representations of joint distributions: Static world, each random variable has a single fixed value. Mathematical formula used for calculating conditional probabilities. Develop by the mathematician and theologian Thomas Bayes (published in 1763)

4. Introduction • Dynamic system • Sequential data modeling (part of speech) • Time series modeling (activity recognition) • Classic approaches • Linear models: ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average), ARMAX (autoregressive moving average exogenous variables model) • Nonlinear models: neural networks, decision trees • Problems • Prediction of the future based on only a finite window • Difficult to incorporate prior knowledge • Difficult to deal with multi-dimensional inputs and/or outputs • Recent approaches • Hidden Markov models (HMMs): discrete random variable • Kalman filter models (KFMs): continuous state variables • Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs)

5. Transportation Mode: Walking, Running, Car, Bus True velocity and location Observed location Motivation Time = t Mt Xt Ot Time = t+1 Mt+1 Need conditional probability distributions e.g. a distribution on (velocity, location) given the transportation mode Prior knowledge or learned from data Given a sequence of observations (Ot), find the most likely Mt’s that explain it. Or could provide a probability distribution on the possible Mt’s. Xt+1 Ot+1

6. Outline • Introduction • Definition • Representation • Inference • Learning • Comparison • Summary

7. frame i-1 frame i frame i+1 C C C A A B B A B D D D Dynamic Bayesian Networks • BNs consisting of a structure that repeats an indefinite (or dynamic) number of times • Time-invariant: the term ‘dynamic’ means that we are modeling a dynamic model, not that the networks change over time • General form of HMMs and KFLs by representing the hidden and observed state in terms of state variables of complex interdependencies

8. Formal Definition • Defined as • : a directed, acyclic graph of starting nodes (initial probability distribution) • : a directed, acyclic graph of transition nodes (transition probabilities between time slices) • : starting vectors of observable as well as hidden random variable • : transition matrices regarding observable as well as hidden random variables

9. Outline • Introduction • Definition • Representation • Inference • Learning • Comparison • Summary

10. Representation (1): Problem • Target: Is it raining today? • Necessity to specify an unbounded number of conditional probability table, one for each variable in each slice • Each one might involve an unbounded number of parents next step: specify dependencies among the variables.

11. Representation (2): Solution • Assume that change in the world state are caused by a stationary process (unmoving process over time) • Use Markov assumption - The current state depends on only in a finite history of previous states. Using the first-order Markov process: • In addition to restricting the parents of the state variable Xt, we must restrict the parents of the evidence variable Et is the same for all t Transition Model Sensor Model

12. . . . . . . Wi-1 Wi Wi+1 . . . . . . Wi-1 Wi Wi+1 Representation: Extension • There are two possible fixes if the approximation is too inaccurate: • Increasing the order of the Markov process model. For example, adding as a parent of , which might give slightly more accurate predictions • Increasing the set of state variables. For example, adding to allow to incorporate historical records of rainy seasons, or adding , and to allow to use a physical model of rainy conditions • Bigram • Trigram

13. Outline • Introduction • Definition • Representation • Inference • Learning • Comparison • Summary

14. Inference: Overview • To infer the hidden states X given the observations Y1:t • Extend HMM and KFM’s / call BN inference algorithms as subroutines • NP-hard problem • Inference tasks • Filtering(monitoring): recursively estimate the belief state using Bayes’ rule • Predict: computing P(Xt| y1:t-1 ) • Updating: computing P(Xt | y1:t ) • Throw away the old belief state once we have computed the prediction(“rollup”) • Smoothing: estimate the state of the past, given all the evidence up to the current time • Fixed-lag smoothing(hindsight): computing P(Xt-1 | y1:t ) where l > 0 is the lag • Prediction: predict the future • Lookahead: computing P(Xt+h | y1:t) where h > 0 is how far we want to look ahead • Viterbi decoding: compute the most likely sequence of hidden states given the data • MPE(abduction): x*1:t = argmax P(x1:t | y1:t )

15. Inference: Comparison • Filtering: r = t • Smoothing: r > t • Prediction: r < t • Viterbi: MPE

16. Inference: Filtering • Compute the belief state - the posterior distribution over the current state, given all evidence to date • Filtering is what a rational agent needs to do in order to keep track of the current state so that the rational decisions can be made • Given the results of filtering up to time t, one can easily compute the result for t+1 from the new evidence (for some function f) (dividing up the evidence) (using Bayes’ Theorem) (by the Marcov propertyof evidence) α is a normalizing constant used to make probabilities sum up to 1

17. Inference: Filtering • Illustration for two steps in the Umbrella example: • On day 1, the umbrella appears so U1=true • The prediction from t=0 to t=1 is and updating it with the evidence for t=1 gives • On day 2, the umbrella appears so U2=true • The prediction from t=1 to t=2 is and updating it with the evidence for t=2 gives

18. Inference: Smoothing • Compute the posterior distribution over the past state, given all evidence up to the present • Hindsight provides a better estimate of the state than was available at the time, because it incorporates more evidence for some k such that 0 ≤ k < t.

19. Inference: Prediction • Compute the posterior distribution over the future state, given all evidence to date • The task of prediction can be seen simply as filtering without the addition of new evidence for some k>0

20. Inference: Most Likely Explanation (MLE) • Compute the sequence of states that is most likely to have generated a given sequence of observation • Algorithms for this task are useful in many applications, including speech recognition • There exist a recursive relationship between the most likely paths to each state Xt+1 and the most likely paths to each state Xt. This relationship can be write as an equation connecting the probabilities of the paths:

21. Inference: Algorithms • Exact Inference algorithms • Forwards-backwards smoothing algorithm (on any discrete-state DBN) • The frontier algorithm (sweep a Markov blanket, the frontier set F, across the DBN, first forwards and then backwards) • The interface algorithm (use only the set of nodes with outgoing arcs to the next time slice to d-separate the past from the future) • Kalman filtering and smoothing • Approximate algorithms: • The Boyen-Koller (BK) algorithm (approximate the joint distribution over the interface as a product of marginals) • Factored frontier (FF) algorithm / Loopy propagation algorithm (LBP) • Kalman filtering and smoother • Stochastic sampling algorithm: • Importance sampling or MCMC (offline inference) • Particle filtering (PF) (online)

22. Outline • Introduction • Definition • Representation • Inference • Learning • Comparison • Summary

23. Learning (1) • The techniques for learning DBN are mostly straightforward extensions of the techniques for learning BNs • Parameter learning • The transition model P(Xt | Xt-1) / The observation model P(Yt | Xt) • Offline learning • Parameters must be tied across time-slices • The initial state of the dynamic system can be learned independently of the transition matrix • Online learning • Add the parameters to the state space and then do online inference (filtering) • The usual criterion is maximum-likelihood(ML) • The goal of parameter learning is to compute • θ*ML = argmaxθP( Y| θ) = argmaxθlog P( Y| θ) • θ*MAP = argmaxθlog P( Y| θ) + logP(θ) • Two standard approaches: gradient ascent and EM(Expectation Maximization)

24. Learning (2) • Structure learning • The intra-slice connectivity must be a DAG • Learning the inter-slice connectivity is equivalent to the variable selection problem, since for each node in slice t, we must choose its parents from slice t-1. • Learning for DBNs reduces to feature selection if we assume the intra-slice connections are fixed

25. Outline • Introduction • Definition • Representation • Inference • Learning • Comparison • Summary

26. Comparison (HMM: Hidden Markov Model) • Structure • One discrete hidden node (X: hidden variables) • One discrete or continuous observed node per time slice (Y: observations) • Parameters • The initial state distribution P( X1 ) • The transition model P( Xt | Xt-1 ) • The observation model P( Yt | Xt ) • Features • A discrete state variable with arbitrary dynamics and arbitrary measurements • Structures and parameters remain same over time X1 X2 X3 X4 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4

27. frame i-1 frame i frame i+1 .7 .8 1 Qi-1 Qi+1 Qi .3 .2 . . . . . . P(qi|qi-1) 3 P(obsi | qi) 1 2 obsi-1 obsi+1 obsi qi 1 2 3 qi-1 q=1 1 .7 .3 0 obs q=2 2 0 .8 .2 obs obs q=3 3 0 0 1 = variable = state = allowed dependency = allowed transition Comparison with HMMs • HMMs • DBNs

28. Comparison (KFL: Kalman Filter Model) • KFL has the same topology as an HMM • All the nodes are assumed to have linear-Gaussian distributions • x(t+1) = F*x(t) + w(t), • w ~ N(0, Q) : process noise, x(0) ~ N(X(0), V(0)) • y(t) = H*x(t) + v(t), • v ~ N(0, R) : measurement noise • Features • A continuous state variable with linear-Gaussian dynamics and measurements • Also known as Linear Dynamic Systems(LDSs) • A partially observed stochastic process • With linear dynamics and linear observations: f( a + b) = f(a) + f(b) • Both subject to Gaussian noise X1 X2 Y1 Y2

29. Comparison with HMM and KFM • DBN represents the hidden state in terms of a set of random variables • HMM’s state space consists of a single random variable • DBN allows arbitrary CPDs • KFM requires all the CPDs to be linear-Gaussian • DBN allows much more general graph structures • HMMs and KFMs have a restricted topology • DBN generalizes HMM and KFM (more expressive power)

30. Summary • DBN: a Bayesian network with a temporal probability model • Complexity in DBNs • Inference • Structure learning • Comparison with other methods • HMMs: discrete variables • KFMs: continuous variables • Discussion • Why to use DBNs instead of HMMs or KFMs? • Why to use DBNs instead of BNs?