Middle East in Transition

1. Middle East in Transition Other Middle Eastern Issues

2. Middle East in Transition • Islamic Fundamentalism • Water Resources • The Kurds • Iran and Regional Stability

3. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Definitions • Fundamentalism – Originated from Christianity, refers to people who believe in the literal interpretation of the bible • Islamic Fundamentalism – those Muslims who wish to follow a strict, traditional interpretation of Islam – distinguishing between Muslim groups based on fundamentalism is misleading because all Muslims believe in the Koran and the infallible word of God – the level of “strictness” is a defining characteristic

4. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Definitions • Islamist – Muslims who wish to follow a strict interpretation of Islam • Moderate Islamists – Generally support the democratic process • Radical Islamists – Advocate the use of violence and terror to create a government that follows a strict, traditional interpretation of Islam

5. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Frustration with the status quo and lack of progress by some governments are causing a number of Muslims to turn toward radical Islam for solutions • The lines are blurred now on what it means to be a Muslim and on what constitutes a legitimate Islamic government

6. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Case Studies • Egypt • Saudi Arabia • Islamist Militants – Osama Bin Laden • Iraq • Middle Eastern Elections

7. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Egypt • Long-standing difference of opinion and violence between the radical Islamists and the secular government • Resulted in assassination of Anwar Sadat • Continues with today’s government of Hosni Mubarak

8. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Egypt • Militants target government officials and tourists in attempts to destabilize the government • 1997 – 70 tourists gunned down at an ancient temple near Luxor – Attack discredited radical Islamists, condemned by many Islamist leaders, and resulted in harsh crackdown by government

9. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Egypt • Government uses torture and repression on the militants • By 2000 violent opposition to the government subsides and more moderate Islamists, such as the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, seek to work within the political system to create an Islamic state • In 2000 election, despite government efforts to discourage their participation, candidates tied to the Muslim Brotherhood won the second-largest bloc of seats in parliament • In 2005 they win a record 20 % of the seats

10. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Egypt • Militant Islamic groups continue to gain support in the slum areas of Egypt where poverty and unemployment are widespread • Violent attacks in Egypt have been largely suppressed through harsh, repressive government actions – however, Egyptian militants are active in international groups such as al Queda – several Egyptians involved with 9/11 attacks • The question now is whether the militant groups will continue making headway in the democratic process or will they by shut out by the government forcing them to return to more violent means of gaining recognition and support

11. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Saudi Arabia • Birthplace of Islam and the location of Islam’s holiest sites, Mecca and Medina • Since its creation in 1932, Saudi Arabia has been ruled by the al-Saud family – a Monarchy • Saudi Arabia officially practices a strict form of Islam known as Wahhabism • Its laws are based on the Sharia, the sacred law of Islam – Sharia comes from interpretations of the Koran by religious elders • The church/clerics heavily influence social practices and daily life in Saudi Arabia and with the government, have significant clout throughout the Muslim world

12. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Saudi Arabia • Despite the strict Islamist nature of the country, for decades they have been one of the most important U.S. allies in the Middle East – strong economic, military, and political relations • World’s largest exporter of oil • Third-largest exporter of oil to the U.S. • Primary staging ground for the 1991 Persian Gulf War, 2003 Second Persian Gulf War and throughout the 1990s and up until 2003 a primary staging and operating location for U.S. forces in the region • By the end of 2003 virtually all U.S. troops were withdrawn from the country to prevent Islamic extremists from using their presence as a rallying cry against the government

13. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Saudi Arabia • Understanding Saudi politics and society helps us understand radical Islam • Schools are run by radical Muslim clerics – focus heavily on religious studies and often promote anti-Americanism and support to individuals like Osama bin Laden • Government supports thousands of Islamic schools and charities around the world that promote radical Islam • Saudi press has often been strongly anti-American

14. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Saudi Arabia • Understanding Saudi politics and society helps us understand radical Islam • Because of the Saudi’s governmental relations with the U.S. and its suppression of political freedoms and its perceived failure to provide economic security for their large young population, many ordinary Saudis see the monarchy as corrupt and morally bankrupt – they turn to radical Islam and target the government and its U.S. backers verbally and physically • 15 of 19 hijackers involved in 9/11 were Saudi and starting in 2003 the Saudi government has come under an increasing number of terrorist attacks

15. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Cross-national Islamist Militants • Radical Islamist groups whose actions cross state borders – relationship between groups is unclear • Actions by these groups have made it clear that they must be confronted and dealt with through a “war on terrorism” • A main target in the “war on terrorism” is the al Qaeda network led by wealthy Saudi, Osama bin Laden – seeks to unify radical Islamists in pursuit of a “jihad” against Western powers and their Middle Eastern allies

16. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Bin Laden was the mastermind and/or financial backer for at least 4 attacks on the U.S. or U.S. interests: • 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center in New York City • 1996 bombing of an American military facility in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia • 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania • 2000 bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen 17 Killed

17. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Following 9/11 Bin Laden took refuge behind the al Queda backed government in Afghanistan – prompted the U.S. led attack on Afghanistan and the continuing search for bin Laden • Important point to remember – Islamist groups are not attacking Western targets for the purpose of defeating them militarily or to occupy their countries, they are doing it to try and drive the Western presence out of the Middle East

18. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Iraq • Since 2003, the presence of U.S. military forces in Iraq has drawn militant Islamist to Iraq from all over the world – estimates are that up to 2,000 of the 20,000 insurgents in Iraq are foreign fighters • In the past, local Iraqi insurgents viewed the foreign Islamist militants as adversaries; however, they have now found common cause in trying to disrupt U.S. attempts at democratic nation building

19. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • In many cases, the popularity of Islamist groups is boosted by their extensive social welfare programs – they provide health, education, and other social services to local communities • For these reasons the Islamist groups are frequently seen as preferable to the secular governments which are perceived as corrupt, neglectful, and oppressive

20. Middle East in TransitionIslamic Fundamentalism • Islamist election victories have raised a dilemma for the U.S. – to respect democracy the U.S. must accept the rise of groups opposed to its interests • U.S. has labeled some of these groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, as terrorist organizations - the U.S. supports the democratic process while refusing to deal with terrorists

21. Middle East in TransitionWater Resources • Competition over water resources is another potential source of conflict – 5% of the world’s population and only 1% of the world’s water • As with their arguments over land, Israel and its Arab neighbors have a long history of competition over water resources – when original Zionist planners mapped out their intended homeland they included major water resources

22. Middle East in TransitionWater Resources • Over the years Israel and its Arab neighbors have participated in complex negotiations over shared water resources – with growing populations the existing ground and surface water resources are not sufficient to meet demand • Israel currently obtains water from the Jordan and Yarmuk rivers and distributes it to the entire country and from deep well aquifers which are unfortunately being depleted and contaminated by sea water

23. Middle East in TransitionWater Resources • One downside of Israel controlling the water supply, since 1967, Palestinians in the Occupied Territories have faced severe water restrictions • The Palestinians argue that Israel is exploiting these resources for their own countries needs and for the Israeli settlements in the Occupied Territories • Statistically, Israeli settlers have available and use 5 times more water than the Palestinians • This imbalance suggests that any lasting peace plan will have to address balanced water resources

25. Middle East in TransitionWater Resources • In another area, Turkey, Iraq, and Syria share water from the Euphrates River and Turkey and Iraq share water from the Tigris River • Turkey has developed a $32 billion plan for a series of dams called the Southeastern Anatolia Project along the Tigris-Euphrates river - large and multifaceted development project that includes extensive irrigation systems and electricity production • Tensions exist between the countries because the dams regulate the flow of water to downstream countries – long-standing political divisions have kept the countries from developing a regional plan

27. Middle East in TransitionWater Resources • A number of efforts to address the water concerns have been taken – governments have tried to improve water collection and distribution • Some have worked to cooperate better with their neighbors • Saudi Arabia even considered towing icebergs from Antarctica • Another possibility comes from desalination technology – Israel leads the world in this area and has plants located throughout the Persian Gulf • Funded by the tremendous oil wealth in the area

28. Middle East in Transition The Kurds • Another important regional issue is the future of the Kurds – an ethnic group that lives primarily in Iran, Iraq, and Turkey • The Kurds have never had their own nation-state; however, they have struggled for years to create one - Kurdistan • Kurdish separatists have used politics • Resorted to violence • Iran, Iraq, and Turkey have refused to consider Kurdish independence and all three have at times brutally repressed the Kurds

29. Kurdistan

30. Middle East in Transition The Kurds • Efforts to create an independent Kurdish state have been slowed by several internal and external factors • Mid-1990s competing Kurdish factions led to open warfare – one side asked for help from Saddam Hussein and was offset by U.S. airstrikes – resulted in divided control by the two factions • Mid to late-1990s – Turkish military attack Kurdish rebel forces in Iraq and Syria – Syrians expel Kurds and Kurdish leader captured by Turkish agents in Kenya, results in protests all over the world

31. Middle East in Transition The Kurds • In late 2002, following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Turkey became concerned that the Iraqi Kurds would fight for an independent state in Northern Iraq and that Turkish Kurds would join the struggle to create a larger, independent Kurdistan – the U.S. sought to allay Turkish fears by guaranteeing to protect Iraq’s territorial integrity

32. Middle East in Transition The Kurds • Since 2002 the Iraqi Kurds have worked to establish their place in a post-Saddam Iraq • Based on the political realities, an independent Kurdistan is not currently possible – better to use democracy and gain a place in the new government • Kurdish leader Jalal Talibani named president in 2005 making him the first Kurdish head of state in a predominantly Arab country • Iraqi Kurds have also worked to create a truly autonomous Kurdish territory; however, control over oil reserves has sparked a fierce conflict between the Kurds and other ethnic groups living in northern Iraq

33. Middle East in Transition The Kurds • Since 2004 the Turkish government has been increasingly concerned with the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq • Claim they are supporting the Kurdish Workers Party called the Kongra-Gel • June 2004 the Kongra-Gel ended a cease-fire dating back to 1999 – launched attacks into Turkey from northern Iraq • Under pressure from the European Union (EU) Turkey has initiated reforms to protect the human rights and minority interests of the Kurds – Turkey wants to join the EU

34. Middle East in TransitionIran and Regional Stability • Up until 1979, Iran was a major ally of the U.S. – being allied to the U.S. gave the U.S. a way to offset Soviet influence and help protect the area from possible Soviet incursion • In 1979 the Ayatollah Khomeini led a radical Islamic revolution that deposed the Shah – since then states throughout the Middle East have been concerned about Iran’s Islamic radicalism • The concern about Iran’s efforts to export it Islamist radicalism was a major reason why many supported Iraq in the 1980-88 Iran – Iraq War

35. Middle East in TransitionIran and Regional Stability • After the Iran – Iraq War, Arab states remained concerned about Iran’s large military expenditures in purchasing weapons from Russia, China and North Korea • The Arab countries, Israel, and much of the rest of the world are also concerned about Iran’s development of nuclear capabilities, even though Iran insists it is only peaceful in nature

36. Middle East in TransitionIran and Regional Stability • In 1997, liberal Muslim Cleric Muhammad Khatami became Iran’s President with 70% of the vote – during his swearing-in ceremony, he called for a “dialogue of civilization” to improve relations with the West • Unfortunately, Khatami’s efforts to implement reform were regularly blocked by the country’s powerful conservative Muslim clerics or Guardian Council – used its power to annul laws, close proreform newspapers, imprison journalists, and block reformist politicians from running for office

37. Middle East in TransitionIran and Regional Stability • Frustration with the slow pace of reform grew, especially among the Iranian youth, leading to increasingly bold protests and growing disillusionment – many called for Khatami’s resignation • In the fall of 2001, relations between the U.S. and Iran improved when Iran became an ally in the effort to overthrow the Taliban regime in Afghanistan – this relationship broke down in 2002 when President Bush labeled Iran as part of an “Axis of Evil” and accused them of pursuing nuclear weapons and exporting terrorism

38. Middle East in TransitionIran and Regional Stability • In 2004 the situation in Iran took a decided turn for the worse from a U.S. perspective - as Iranian parliamentary electionsneared in early 2004, the GuardianCouncil banned nearly one-thirdof the candidates running for office,many of whom were reformers • Many Iranians became angered or indifferent about Iranian politics – voter turnout was low and Iran’s conservatives easily took control of parliament Ahmad Jannati

39. Middle East in TransitionIran and Regional Stability • In 2005, the socially conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected President giving the conservative faction full control of Iran and making the prospect of better relations with the west highly unlikely • In 2005-06, Iran continued its efforts to enrich uranium and has led to a significant confrontation with the U.S., other Western states and the U.N. • When President Ahmadinejad announced that Iran had successfully enriched uranium, President Bush stated “all options were on the table” in dealing with Iran’s nuclear program, including military action • In January 2007, the U.N. Security Council voted unanimously to impose economic sanctions on Iran – an embargo on nuclear technology and freezing of assets of certain Iranian companies and individuals – Iran condemns the action and refuses to halt their uranium enrichment program

40. Middle East in TransitionThe Persian Gulf War Questions